After Pennsylvania, Nothing New...Well, Almost Nothing
Senator Hillary Clinton got her must-win...win in Pennsylvania yesterday, by just shy of 10 percentage points, over her rival Senator Barack Obama.
But at what cost?
The campaign was particularly bitter, and nasty, with Senator Clinton, by all measures -- even her own campaign's and those of Pennsylvania voters -- being the instigator. The 'kitchen sink' strategy proves two things. One, her campaign realizes that the only way to win is to destroy Obama, and two, Senator Clinton is a tough as the boys -- she might be a woman but she's playing hardball. With her negatives above 50% nationally, some believe a choice has been made by the Clinton camp that she's going to be disliked anyway and she should simply swing for the fences of distasteful ads.
(Oh, we might also mention, it seems in Pennsylvania that many GOP members in Pennsylvania switched parties for the primary to vote of Clinton, because Republicans want to face Clinton and not Obama.)
Here's the issue: by all measures, Clinton is impossibly behind in the delegate count. She is also behind in the number of states won and even with sweeping the remaining states, she can't overcome the difference. And last, she is behind in the popular vote by about 500,000 votes and counting. The Clinton campaign wants to count Florida and Michigan, but both states were off-limits to the candidates. By calculation of MSNBC and CSPAN, she'd have to win 85% of the remainder of the votes to win the popular vote, that, and votes in Florida and Michigan -- a state where Obama wasn't even on the ballot -- would have to be counted.
None of the above are going to happen.
The bottom line is that the Pennsylvania outcome does not change dynamic of this lengthy primary, says the Obama campaign. They're right. While there were 158 delegates at stake in Pennsylvania, there are 187 delegates at issue in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries in two weeks. Obama victories there, and this thing is done and needs to be called.
And the strident attacks by Senator Clinton have given the GOP an "in." The man who invented the "Willie Horton" ad has created an ad linking Obama to three gang killings in Chicago, with imagery that can only be categorized as appalling, and the North Carolina GOP has created an ad against Obama so repulsive that John McCain has publically objected (while Senator Clinton has not). If Clinton can do it, the logic goes, why not join in the attacks on Obama as well, even if he's not the nominee -- yet.
So what's the end game?
At the end of the day, the fact of the matter is that Barack Obama has won more "battleground" states like Missouri, Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Chances are, Ohio and Pennsylvania will vote Democratic regardless of who the candidate is. And Florida and Michigan, too, are likely to go Blue as well. With the arithmetic the way it is, and barring some colossal gaffe, Barack Obama will win the nomination. And believe me, the Clinton people know this. So, truth is, the continuation of this race is about being selfish on Senator Clinton's part, not about what's best for the party or for the future of the country.
But at what cost?
The campaign was particularly bitter, and nasty, with Senator Clinton, by all measures -- even her own campaign's and those of Pennsylvania voters -- being the instigator. The 'kitchen sink' strategy proves two things. One, her campaign realizes that the only way to win is to destroy Obama, and two, Senator Clinton is a tough as the boys -- she might be a woman but she's playing hardball. With her negatives above 50% nationally, some believe a choice has been made by the Clinton camp that she's going to be disliked anyway and she should simply swing for the fences of distasteful ads.
(Oh, we might also mention, it seems in Pennsylvania that many GOP members in Pennsylvania switched parties for the primary to vote of Clinton, because Republicans want to face Clinton and not Obama.)
Here's the issue: by all measures, Clinton is impossibly behind in the delegate count. She is also behind in the number of states won and even with sweeping the remaining states, she can't overcome the difference. And last, she is behind in the popular vote by about 500,000 votes and counting. The Clinton campaign wants to count Florida and Michigan, but both states were off-limits to the candidates. By calculation of MSNBC and CSPAN, she'd have to win 85% of the remainder of the votes to win the popular vote, that, and votes in Florida and Michigan -- a state where Obama wasn't even on the ballot -- would have to be counted.
None of the above are going to happen.
The bottom line is that the Pennsylvania outcome does not change dynamic of this lengthy primary, says the Obama campaign. They're right. While there were 158 delegates at stake in Pennsylvania, there are 187 delegates at issue in the North Carolina and Indiana primaries in two weeks. Obama victories there, and this thing is done and needs to be called.
And the strident attacks by Senator Clinton have given the GOP an "in." The man who invented the "Willie Horton" ad has created an ad linking Obama to three gang killings in Chicago, with imagery that can only be categorized as appalling, and the North Carolina GOP has created an ad against Obama so repulsive that John McCain has publically objected (while Senator Clinton has not). If Clinton can do it, the logic goes, why not join in the attacks on Obama as well, even if he's not the nominee -- yet.
So what's the end game?
At the end of the day, the fact of the matter is that Barack Obama has won more "battleground" states like Missouri, Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Chances are, Ohio and Pennsylvania will vote Democratic regardless of who the candidate is. And Florida and Michigan, too, are likely to go Blue as well. With the arithmetic the way it is, and barring some colossal gaffe, Barack Obama will win the nomination. And believe me, the Clinton people know this. So, truth is, the continuation of this race is about being selfish on Senator Clinton's part, not about what's best for the party or for the future of the country.
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HRC is done. And she knows it.
This is an important time for Barack. Now that the HRC campaign and the McCain campaign are starting to sound eerily similar, its time for Obama to get back to his message of hope and optimism. Something that will resound quite loudly in the vacuum of any other optimism. Hil's talking about obliterating Iran, McCain is running Rev. Wright ads, someone needs to talk about hope. Stop playing to the mediocre middle and talk about issues, solutions that folks truly care about. I think the dirt surprised Obama, but he needs to get back on track. Hope is what got him here. Hope should keep him and us going.